I'm Confident Ukraine Will Become a NATO Member

«Any agreements about ending the war in Ukraine must start with the impossibility of limiting Ukraine's sovereignty.»

Nobody can legally or politically pressure Ukraine to recognize that part of our territories might be under Russian jurisdiction. This is territorial sovereignty.

The second point is connected with our right to deter any further Russian aggression. This means that only we, together with our partners, make decisions about what army and in what quantity we need. This is security sovereignty.

And the third important component is foreign policy sovereignty, which means that Ukraine itself decides where and how it wants to move.

These three points are the fundamental component of any just peace. Because if sovereignty is limited, what is the justice of this world?

To prevent Russian aggression in the future, Ukraine obviously needs security guarantees.

I, for example, am confident that we will come to NATO membership or a system of bilateral guarantees similar to those currently in effect for Japan or South Korea. But at the moment, our partners must take on what is called strategic and sufficient deterrence.

I'll repeat: strategic and sufficient deterrence.

This requires a European military mission. Ideally, of course, on a larger scale than what is discussed as of January 2025. But in reality, this could be a broader story than just a military mission. For example, it could involve investments in Ukraine's security and the security of other European countries, in weapons production, anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense.

Sovereignty, security, deterrence, and security guarantees are topics fundamentally interconnected and must be considered together.

Russia is trying to impose the topic of neutrality on Ukraine. But in reality, no one in Russia itself believes in guarantees of neutrality or guarantees of Ukraine not joining NATO. How could Russia obtain such guarantees? I'll remind you that as of 2014, when Russia started the war, Ukraine was a neutral country with a non-aligned status fixed in its legislation. And it was then that we were attacked. Ukraine's non-aligned status did not deter Russia. So, everyone perfectly understands that this logic does not work. It doesn't work for Ukraine, nor for our partners, nor for Putin. Therefore, it's obvious that subsequently, Russia will simply carry out systematic attempts to destroy our statehood and identity.

This story is much deeper than just security guarantees. The point is that Russia is trying to build its idea on the notion that from now on, Russia is not a European state, but a state-civilization. This is where their talks about the so-called "Russian world" (“Russkiy mir”) which supposedly extends to Ukraine, come from. If one accepts such logic, it could go too far. The logic that Russian borders are where Russia drew them could ultimately repeat anywhere.

Why is it beneficial for Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine? Because Europeans will never have stable and sustained security, as any gray zone will inevitably explode. And in a world that is being reset, gray zones will explode very painfully and very quickly, even if someone is not ready to accept this.

As a result, this will lead to even greater losses and even more instability, including economic instability

All gray zones must be eliminated. This can be done gradually or quite quickly, but ultimately, there should be no gray zones on the European continent.